11:45 am - Sat, Sep 20, 2014

R users

can anyone get the pomp package SIR vignette code to work ?

keeping getting 5 state parameters returned when 4 are expected error

9:01 pm - Thu, Sep 18, 2014
3 notes
This is something special, the magic hour we used to call it. I think we’re in a new magic hour era.

eh Cookson bud

you’ve got one guy from the class of 19EPO

who’s 

ohhhhhhhhhh

ha !

new “MAGIC” hour era

got it 

cheeky bastard

8:53 pm
Q: Regarding the power analysis of the Vuelta, would it be possible that the model was affected by the steepness of the climbs as well as their short lenght like you mentionned? the extremely slow speed we have seen could mean that very little energy is spent "fighting the wind" and more is spent going up, hence the apparent very high power being put out by riders. Thanks.
Anonymous

the power estimate model gets better the steeper the climb as drafting and CdA become less dominant sources of error. on the other hand the short length increases the error of timing and elevation change though to a lesser degree.

i don’t have enough data to know how well the DpVAM model handles very short climbs.

11:19 pm - Wed, Sep 17, 2014
1 note

Where does the notion come from that prior to the EPO era the understanding of blood manipulation was largely primitive and most usages were likely ineffective?

6:01 pm - Sat, Sep 13, 2014

Would defending Vuelta champ Horner have been a contender ?

image

Suspending disbelief for a moment, yup.

Then context of course:

http://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/biking/road-biking/Chris-Horner-Bio-Passport-Raises-Doubts.html

.http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/15660/Bio-passport-expert-raises-concerns-about-Horners-published-biological-passport-values.aspx

http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/08/news/lampre-pulls-horner-out-of-vuelta-for-conflict-with-mpcc_342072

5:22 pm
1 note

2014 Vuelta Performance Analysis

With the climbs done and Contador nearly sure of victory, its time to give some context to his winning effort.

Looking at the power duration plot its becomes evident just how well Contador controlled the race. On the stages were he lost time notice the minimal spread in power outputs of the GC contenders. Contrast that now to stage 16 and 20. On both of these stages the spread in the power outputs was large and Contador came out on top.  

The pVAM for this race was is a bit difficult to interpret. The clear trend of highly positive values on short climbs and negative values on short climbs makes me wonder a bit if the model is simply not handling the short distances well. 

To try to solve this question, consider Froomes 2013 TDF and 2014 Vuelta data.

From the power duration plot above, it looks like the short climbs from the Vuelta actually fall very nicely along the same trend from Froome’s 2013 TDF data. The 2 slow longer climbs from the Vuelta appear to be the outliers of the data set. 

Taken together it is a reasonable generalization to say that aside from the 2 outliers, 2014 Contador and Froome were on par with 2014 Nibali and 2013 Froome. Like these performances, the 2014 Vuelta performances from Contador and Froome would likely have been frairly competitive with the 2002-2007 period of known doping.

6:16 pm - Fri, Sep 12, 2014

who is ready to take the dilemma

out

of the prisoners dilemma

?

6:03 pm
1 note

Could Contador have followed Froome ?

The numbers say yes. The standout climb is still Stage 16 were Contador road away from Froome after the rest of the contenders had been distanced.

More importantly, Contador likely stayed within his limits minimizing accumulated fatigue going in to Stage 20.

Remember Stage 20 Ancares is the longest finishing climb of this years Vuelta.

In terms of the elephant in the room, Stage 18 was again fast but too short to get too excited about the pVAM.

12:53 pm - Wed, Sep 10, 2014

the day teams start to own their doping positives

is the day their word is worth a damn

cc Astana et al

10:43 pm - Tue, Sep 9, 2014

11 October 2014

Flock, 

Mark your calendars. 

m

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